Deep Dive into Grant Williams' Analytics Stats

By Andy Kovar, UTsports.com

The top-ranked Tennessee basketball team has navigated nearly two-thirds of its regular-season schedule with just one loss, and National Player of the Year candidate Grant Williams is enjoying a level of individual success on par with that of his team.

Despite winning the SEC's Player of the Year award last season, the junior from Charlotte, North Carolina, has continued to elevate his game in his third year on Rocky Top. Williams, who leads the conference in points per game at 20.2, is also at the top of the heap in some stats that aren't found on the average box score.

Let's take a dive into some analytical stats illustrating that Williams is authoring his best season yet as a Tennessee Volunteer.

Williams' Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 32.7 currently ranks atop the SEC by 5.0 points while ranking eighth nationally. PER sums up all of a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts his or her negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's overall performance.

Williams owns the third-highest PER in the SEC since 2009-10 when it became an official stat. The two players with higher PER ratings during that span—Anthony Davis (35.13) and DeMarcus Cousins (34.18)—have blossomed into perennial All-Stars in the NBA.

Williams' 2018-19 PER also is tied for the 34th highest rating overall since the inception of the stat. Below is a list of the top 30 highest PER ratings in college basketball history, via Basketball Reference:

Ranking	Player	Rating	Year	School
1.	Zion Williamson	41.50	2018-19	Duke
2.	John Brown	36.93	2015-16	High Point
3.	Cameron Jackson	36.90	2018-19	Wofford
4.	Jameel Warney	36.40	2015-16	Stony Brook
5.	Brandon Clarke	36.30	2018-19	Gonzaga
6.	Kelly Olynyk	36.16	2012-13	Gonzaga
7.	John Collins	35.91	2016-17	Wake Forest
8.	Mike Muscala	35.73	2012-13	Bucknell
9.	Alan Williams	35.72	2013-14	UC-Santa Barbara
10.	Anthony Davis	35.13	2011-12	Kentucky
11.	Thomas Walkup	34.80	2015-16	Stephen F. Austin
12.	Kenneth Faried	34.74	2010-11	Morehead State
13.	Mike Daum	34.55	2015-16	South Dakota State
14.	Matt Refferty	34.50	2018-19	Furman
15.	Frank Kaminsky	34.43	2014-15	Wisconsin
16.	Max Mahoney	34.40	2018-19	Boston University
17.	DeMarcus Cousins	34.18	2009-10	Kentucky
18.	Damian Lillard	33.98	2011-12	Weber State
19.	Omar Samhan	33.77	2009-10	Saint Mary's (CA)
20.	Jock Landale	33.74	2017-18	Saint Mary's (CA)
21.	Javonte Green	33.45	2013-14	Radford
22.	Javonte Green	33.42	2014-15	Radford
23.	Jock Landale	33.31	2016-17	Saint Mary's (CA)
T-24.	Mike Daum	33.30	2018-19	South Dakota State
T-24.	Ja Morant	33.30	2018-19	Murray State
26.	Noah Dahlman	33.14	2010-11	Wofford
27.	Brice Johnson	33.04	2015-16	North Carolina
28.	Anthony Lamb	33.00	2018-19	Vermont
T-29.	John Brown	32.84	2013-14	High Point
T-29.	Doug McDermott	32.84	2012-13	Creighton
31.	Javon McCrea	32.79	2010-11	Buffalo
32.	Doug McDermott	32.77	2013-14	Creighton
33.	Derrick Williams	32.75	2010-11	Arizona
34.	Grant Williams	32.70	2018-19	Tennessee
35.	DeAndre Ayton	32.61	2017-18	Arizona

Of the aforementioned 21 players who are no longer playing college basketball, 14 have gone on to star in the NBA. To put into perspective how efficient Williams' season has been to this point, the highest PER in the NBA this season is 30.9 by Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans. Williams' PER is nearly two points higher than the five-time NBA All-Star.

Part of the reason the National Player of the Year candidate has accumulated one of the highest PER ratings in college basketball history has been his consistency through each game this season.

If you look at Williams' Efficiency rating (EFF), he has had only four games this season with a rating lower than 20. Efficiency is calculated by Martin Manley's formula of PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK - Missed Shots - TO. Williams has had six games this season with an EFF rating of 30 or higher; Admiral Schofield and Kyle Alexander are the only other Vols who have accomplished a single-game EFF of 30 this season. Williams, a midseason All-American (Sporting News and Sports Illustrated), has an average EFF of 25.63, which is eight points higher than any other player on UT's roster.

Last Wednesday in Nashville, Williams recorded the highest single-game EFF rating in college basketball this season by a power program player, posting a 50 rating (he had 43 points, eight rebounds, two assists, four blocks and a steal). Below is a list of Tennessee's game this season and Williams' EFF rating in each:

Date	Opponent	EFF Rating
Nov. 6	Lenoir-Rhyne	24
Nov. 9	Louisiana	38
Nov. 13	Georgia Tech	19
Nov. 21	Louisville	29
Nov. 23	Kansas	22
Nov. 28	Eastern Kentucky	34
Dec. 2	Texas A&M-CC	24
Dec. 9	Gonzaga	28
Dec. 15	Memphis	23
Dec. 19	Samford	19
Dec. 22	Wake Forest	30
Dec. 29	Tennessee Tech	35
Jan. 5	Georgia	29
Jan. 8	Missouri	-1
Jan. 12	Florida	30
Jan. 15	Arkansas	22
Jan. 19	Alabama	12
Jan. 23	Vanderbilt	50*
Jan. 26	West Virginia	20

*2nd highest mark in the country this season

Before the game at Vanderbilt, he accounted for 4.0 "Win Shares," ranking just outside the top 10 in the country. Win Shares is a formula that estimates how many of their teams' wins a player is responsible for based on the player's offensive and defensive contributions to the team.

Williams' 43-point performance at Vanderbilt boosted his Win Shares by 0.5. He currently ranks sixth in country with a Win Shares of 4.8, which is the best mark in the SEC by 1.7.

When averaging out Win Shares on a per-minute basis (Win Shares Per 40 Minutes), Williams has the third-highest rating in the country, averaging .320 Win Shares for every 40 minutes on the floor. That puts the junior in some elite company, with only Zion Williamson of Duke and Brandon Clarke of Gonzaga owning a higher rating on the year. Below is a list of the nation's top 10 players in Win Shares Per 40 Minutes via Basketball Reference:

Ranking	Player	Rating	School
1.	Zion Williamson	.365	Duke
2.	Brandon Clarke	.331	Gonzaga
3.	Grant Williams	.320	Tennessee
4.	Cameron Jackson	.316	Wofford
5.	Matt Rafferty	.312	Furman
6.	Ja Morant	.312	Murray State
7.	De'Andre Hunter	.295	Virginia
8.	Mike Daum	.290	South Dakota State
9.	Scottie James	.289	Liberty
10.	Rui Hachimura	.279	Gonzaga

In addition to these categories, Williams ranks atop the SEC in 10 analytical categories while ranking in the top 10 nationally in seven categories.

As Williams continues to make his case to become just the 11th player in conference history to win Player of the Year multiple times, he might just be making a case to become the first National Player of the Year in program history.

University of Tennessee Athletics

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